Probability Of Winning The Lottery - Don't Waste Your Money

[jpg7n16]

Well I feel sorry if losing 1 dollar breaks you heart

Did you not read the thread? See the posts above. Lottery addicts don't lose just $1. Over a lifetime, they lose $10's of thousands.

I've played on occasion. It's fun to say 'what if' - but I understand that I'm losing $5 for every $5 I play.

There are people who literally play $100's a month chasing a dream. They could've invested that money and helped build that dream.

According to this article, the average lotto spending per household is $525/year. How much do you spend per year? Maybe $5? $10? Who is out there spending $1000+ to balance someone like me out?? Because someone is out there...

Q&A with The Lottery Wars author Matthew Sweeney | Moneyland | TIME.com

[Bobtsu]

[QUOTE=jpg7n16;307727]Did you not read the thread? See the posts above. Lottery addicts don't lose just $1. Over a lifetime, they lose $10's of thousands.

I've played on occasion. It's fun to say 'what if' - but I understand that I'm losing $5 for every $5 I play.

There are people who literally play $100's a month chasing a dream. They could've invested that money and helped build that dream.

According to this article, the average lotto spending per household is $525/year. How much do you spend per year? Maybe $5? $10? Who is out there spending $1000+ to balance someone like me out?? Because someone is out there...

I agree, there will alway be exeptions. There will be people who spend a fortune trying to win. I don't advocate that at all!! But nothing is wrong with playing responsible if it's your cup of tea. If it makes you happy then its not a waste of money. Society and your state, towns, and schools benefit substantially from lotto revune. That's why we have them.

[disneysteve]

Wow so people lose a dollar OMG!!!

I had a patient who had what I was pretty sure was a cancerous growth on his ear. I repeatedly referred him to dermatology and he repeatedly didn't go. I finally asked why. He said he didn't want to pay the $15 copay. I knew for a fact that he played the lottery regularly so I asked him how much he spent on tickets. He answered $5 per day. So this man had no problem spending $35/week, week after week after week, to play the lottery but refused to spend $15 to treat cancer.

We're not talking about the folks who occasionally buy a ticket. Heck, I occasionally buy a ticket. That is purely for entertainment and I can afford it. The problem is that the vast majority of tickets are bought by poor people. I don't have the exact stats handy but something like 80% of tickets are bought by people with household incomes of less than $20,000. Most people buying lottery tickets CAN'T afford it, even $1. Many are on welfare, Medicaid, food stamps and other public assistance, so in many cases, they are spending your tax dollars to buy their lottery tickets. That's where the problem lies.

[eo83]

"So, my friend who buys 10 tickets per week for 30 years buys 15,600 tickets in his lifetime. Waste of money? I suppose. But his chances of winning the state lottery IN HIS LIFETIME are just over 1 in a thousand (about 1 in 1154)."

This is a fallacy. I know it sounds good, but it's not statistically accurate due to the nature of the game. The trouble is, when a given set of numbers win in a drawing, that set of numbers is not removed from future outcomes. In other words, there's no guarantee that the same numbers that won today won't win tomorrow. Consequently, you have the same 1 in 18,000,000 odds for every ticket you play IN EVERY GAME YOU PLAY. Your odds don't improve based on how many times you've lost in the past.

You can only improve your odds on a game-by-game basis, and only by buying additional tickets. So, your friend would only have the 1 in 1,154 odds that you quoted above if he bought 15,600 tickets FOR THE SAME DRAWING.

Take for example a basketball player who is a career .500 shooter from the freethrow line. Tonight, he gets fouled and gets two freethrows. He misses the first one. By your logic, he would be GUARANTEED to make the second shot. This is obviously not the case. He has the same 50/50 chance of making every single shot he takes. If he misses ten in a row, you can't say the odds are improved that he'll make his 11th. His odds of making his next shot will always be 1 in 2.

So back to your friend who bought 10 tickets a week for 30 years. Let's say, for the sake of easy math, that he buys 10 tickets a week for one single drawing (rather than spending $2 on each drawing from Monday to Friday or something like that). While he did incur 1 in 1,800,000 odds 1,560 times, he never had 15,600 in 18,000,000 odds. It just don't work that way.

"Math. How does it work?"

Indeed, my friend. Indeed.

[jpg7n16]

"So, my friend who buys 10 tickets per week for 30 years buys 15,600 tickets in his lifetime. Waste of money? I suppose. But his chances of winning the state lottery IN HIS LIFETIME are just over 1 in a thousand (about 1 in 1154)."

This is a fallacy. I know it sounds good, but it's not statistically accurate due to the nature of the game.

It is not a fallacy. And statistically speaking, this poster was correct.

Though I want to be very clear that just because his math was correct, does not mean that his friend's strategy was something we should all implement.

You can only improve your odds on a game-by-game basis, and only by buying additional tickets. So, your friend would only have the 1 in 1,154 odds that you quoted above if he bought 15,600 tickets FOR THE SAME DRAWING.

That is not correct.

You can only have a 1 in 1,153.846 chance of winning this specific lottery drawing by purchasing 15,600 tickets.

You however also have a 1 in 1,154.346 chance of winning a drawing at least one time in a 30 year span when purchasing 10 tickets/week.

Math to follow.

So back to your friend who bought 10 tickets a week for 30 years. Let's say, for the sake of easy math, that he buys 10 tickets a week for one single drawing (rather than spending $2 on each drawing from Monday to Friday or something like that). While he did incur 1 in 1,800,000 odds 1,560 times, he never had 15,600 in 18,000,000 odds. It just don't work that way.

"Math. How does it work?"

Indeed, my friend. Indeed.

Actually, yes it does.

Please see this video in my post above.

Calculating Probability - "At Least One" statements - YouTube

Odds of winning a single drawing = entries/possibilities

15,600/18,000,000 = 0.0867% = 1 in 1,153.846 [cost $15,600]
10/18,000,000 = 0.0001% = 1 in 1,800,000 [cost $10]

Odds of winning at least one drawing over a 30 year period when purchasing X tickets per week = (1 - (probability of event not happening)^(# of trials))

15,600 tickets per weekly drawing
1 - [(17,984,400/18,000,000)^(52*30)] = 74.1429% = 1 in 1.349 [total cost $24,336,000]

10 tickets per weekly drawing
1 - [(17,999,990/18,000,000)^(52*30)] = 0.0866% = 1 in 1,154.346 [total cost $15,600]

2 tickets per drawing 5x/week
1 - [(17,999,998/18,000,000)^(5*52*30)] = 0.0866% = 1 in 1,154.346 [total cost $15,600]

In this case, the math just happens to give a very similar answer.

Moral of the story is that whether you buy them all in one drawing, or spread out over 30 years -- there is still a 99.9% chance that you will lose $15,600.

[memoch]

...

sorry to say you are all wrong.

The odds of winning is 50-50.

You either win or lose. Make sense?

[KiwiJo09]

I rarely get the urge to play. But, I got the urge one day, really badly. This had never happened before and has never happened since. I am a reasonable person and I know that my chances of winning the lottery are highly unlikely. My hubby is the complete opposite. The only reason he doesn't play anymore is because I nagged him to death about wasting money on something that doesn't pay you back. And so, do you know what I did? I transferred $1 to my savings account. That's the smart way to play.

[NetSkyBlue]

There's a huge difference between being an addict and playing occasionally for entertainment.

In 2011, I believe I played 3 times. For those $3, I got more entertainment than if I'd bought, say, 2 sodas, or one latte, or a hamburger, or any other consumable "fun" item. Even though I didn't win, it wasn't a waste of money for me. And if I had won, you can bet I'd have been glad I did.

Spending on anything without moderation is a foolish waste, and I'm sure there are those who would say spending money on anything frivolous is a waste, but life without entertainment, including the chance to dream big, is pretty dull indeed.

[bjl584]

sorry to say you are all wrong.

The odds of winning is 50-50.

You either win or lose. Make sense?

You have a 50-50 CHANCE of winning. (You win or you don't.)
But, the ODDS of winning are in the millions.

[nickledimed]

Chances of winning the lottery?

The bible says that he helps those who help them selves.
You can also think of it as an investment.
But I agree with past statements, If you don't play, your chances of winning are 0%.

[jpg7n16]

The bible says that he helps those who help them selves.

No it doesn't.

Acts 17:11 Phantom Verse: "God helps those who help themselves?"

You can also think of it as an investment.

There is a difference between an investment, and speculating.

Principles of Graham: Investment Vs. Speculation

[Richard Brown]

Thinking it out

So much has been placed on why you should not play the lottery due to odds. Instead of odds, how about "What makes it so hard to win?" My key philosphy in life: Observation. Anything can be solved through Observation. Which makes me question if the lotteries are controlling the numbers. If you buy quick picks only you give full control to the lottery. I feel everyone should pick there own numbers to play, otherwise your just waiting for the lottery to say yes or no to you winning. If everyone picked there own numbers that would throw there system into chaos there by giving more winners. Is it fate or accident that there are only 9-12 jackpot winners a year? What are the odds of that? Powerball says they use a drum and ball system, but my observation shows they are using a RNG( Random Number Generator) better knowen as a computer. If this was a honest game there would be more winners.

[diamonds]

Lightning?

Hmmm. But if about 100 people get killed by being struck by lightning in a year, (and given that many lotteries are run on a weekly basis) then in any given week around 2 people will get struck by lightning. At a base population of 265 million, that gives you a 1 in 132.5 million chance of getting struck by lightning per week (or per lottery).

The explanation I like best about lotteries is that it is like getting a bunch of people together to spend 10 dollars to buy five dollars. It is a waste of money, but I don't see how the getting struck by lightning argument works.

[jpg7n16]

So much has been placed on why you should not play the lottery due to odds. Instead of odds, how about "What makes it so hard to win?"

What does 2+2=? Instead of math, how about "what do those numbers add up to?"

What makes it so hard to win? The odds.

Is it fate or accident that there are only 9-12 jackpot winners a year? What are the odds of that?

Ummm, let's see. Powerball odds of winning: 1 in 175,223,510

Welcome to Powerball - Prizes

Actual # of jackpot winners by year:

Powerball - Stories

Which tells me that they probably sold about 2,102,682,120 tickets to get to those 12 winners.

Powerball says they use a drum and ball system, but my observation shows they are using a RNG( Random Number Generator) better knowen as a computer. If this was a honest game there would be more winners.

You do know they show the drawings on TV right?

Powerball - TV Stations

And that computer system looks an awful lot like a drum and ball system...
Powerball Drawing: Saturday, 2/4/2012 - YouTube

Have you ever observed a drawing?

My key philosphy in life: Observation. Anything can be solved through Observation.

[Richard Brown]

lottory

Ok, instead of going back and forth let me give you some examples. Are you aware of the many number patterns mega and powerball creates. If not do this. Start at any game power or mega. take a playing card and write the winning numbers in order. ex: number comes out 3-8-10-31-35/30...the number 3 will be number 1...8 will be 2..10 will be 3 and so on. go to the old numbers on lottory site and pick a month year whatever. write the winning numbers in example above. keeping in mind, mega and powerball numbers are not seperated, they are one in the same with difference of more numbers when it comes to playing powerball. Now lets say you write enough winning numbers in the play ticket to reach the number 10. The next draw will be the 11th draw. Find the numbers 10 and 1 or any other combination that will equal 11..5&6...9&2..so on. Your winning number will fit those combinations according to the number patterns the winning numbers create. The number patterns are something you have to sit and study as it would take me awhile to describe them. This is just one of many methods to choose your number. My arguement to this is. How can a ball and drum system, a completely random system create souch a precise number pattern or system. Here is another tip. While we are playing there number system left behind by there qoute unqoute ball and drum system, they are playing the numbers the RNG and those who pick there numbers. The world was built on deceit and there is nothing new under the sun.